Bank of America Adds AES Corp to US1, Removes Ameren Corp.

On August 13, 2020, Bank of America added AES Corp., (NYSE: AES) to its US-1 List. According to the bank, the US 1 list is the collection of the their best investment ideas that is subset of their buy-rated stocks. The bank has now removed Ameren (NYSE: AEE) from that list.

AES has had a huge run since May 11, 2020. It has risen from $11.87 on May 11 to $17.67 on August 17. That's a 49% gain in three months.  It may be wise to wait for a pull back before adding the stock to your portfolio.  A good entry point may be around $14.39. Currently, the money flow indicator is in overbought territory and the stock is hugging the upper part of the Bollinger Bands.  

Exhibit: AES Corp., has had a huge run 

 (Source: Tradingview)        

Disclosure: I do not own AES or Ameren

Barron's Recommends Merck, But Is it a Buy At $83.

Barron's has recommended Merck (NYSE: MRK) stating that the company does not get "enough credit". Merck is currently trading at $83.48. The price is currently hugging the upper part of the Bollinger Band. The money flow indicator is approaching over-bought territory and currently sits at 60. The MACD is flashing a buy signal. All the moving averages are currently flashing a buy. If there's any pullback, the stock may be a buy at $75 or $76.  

Exhibit: Merck May Be a Buy at $75 or $76.

 

(Source: Tradingview)

 

Exhibit: Merck Moving Averages Are Indicating a Buy

 (Source: Tradingview)

Exhibit: Merck Oscillators

 

 

(Source: Tradingview)          

Is Redfin a buy at $41.80?

Redfin (NASDAQ: RDFN)  - the real estate brokerage company - had a great Q2 2020. Revenue increased by 8% y-o-y to $214 million. The company did book a $4 million operating loss but that was down from $12 million in the same quarter in 2019. The ultra low mortgage rates are benefiting the company. But given the pace of home sales there's very low levels of available homes for sale.The company has provided good guidance for the third quarter. 

Exhibit: Redfin had a down day today, but the stock may not have hit bottom

 

(Source: Tradingview)

There could be support for the stock at around the $41 level.  If the stock drops below the support level at $39, that may be a very bearish sign for the short-term. On the upside there could be resistance for the stock at $43.65. My limit order got triggered today at $41.80 and it ended the day at $41.70. If it passes $43.65 it could go to new all-time highs. Majority of the Wall Street analysts are neutral on the stock with a target of $39.50.

(Disclosure: I own Redfin)   

     

Why I bought Charles Schwab at $33.14 on Aug 7, 2020

Entry Price: $33.14

Trade Date: Aug 7, 2020

Potential Exit Points: Near the top of the Bollinger Bands at around 35.70 or wait until after the next earnings (October 19, 2020) and exit after collecting the dividend.  

Charles Schwab (NYSE: SCHW) is one of the largest brokerage firms in the country. A wave of consolidation across the industry is putting Schwab at a dominant position. In the near-term, Schwab faces pressure on its revenues due to the zero interest rate policy (ZIRP) of the Federal Reserve. The ZIRP is impacting Schwab's net interest margin, but it is having a positive impact on the number of trades executed. People everywhere are hungry for yield. Charles Schwab has also been successful in growing its asset base at a long-term growth rate of 6% due with its deft use of acquisitions to bolster assets.  The companies with the largest asset bases will survive and Schwab with $4 Trillion in assets will be one of those survivors. 

Exhibit: Schwab Growing New New Assets at around 6%

(Source: SeekingAlpha)

The consolidation in the industry will leave very few large players dominating the industry. Schwab recently acquired TD Ameritrade and Morgan Stanley acquired E*Trade. I am hoping to hold on to Schwab until after the next quarterly earnings and the dividend payment, which I anticipate would be a good one. 

From a technical analysis point of view, I am not fully convinced this is the perfect trade. The Simple Moving Averages are screaming a sell while some of the oscillators are signalling a buy. Overall the technical indicators are flashing a sell signal.  

Exhibit: Charles Schwab Technical Indicators - August 8, 2020 

(Source: Tradingview) 

The stock was trading near the lower price range of its Bollinger Bands and had a double bottom. That, along with the fundamentals, is what prompted me to buy the shares. 

Exhibit: Charles Schwab's Double Bottom

(Source: Tradingview) 

(Disclosure: I own Charles Schwab)

       

What is wrong with 3M?

I am going to break the suspense and answer the question in the title: "There's nothing wrong with 3M!" Its earnings for the quarter that ended June 2020 was exception given the tough circumstances under which every company in the world has been operating this year. Its GAAP EPS was $2.22 for Q2 2020 against an estimate of $1.80. Its revenue of $7.18 billion missed estimates by just $110 million. Complete industries in this era of the pandemic are in a free-fall and here we are punishing an essential, iconic American company for missing revenue by an amount, which would be 1.5% of the $7.18 billion.

Exhibit: 3M Q2 2020 Sales Declined by 13.1%

(Source: SeekingAlpha)

Yes, there was broad weakness in sales across all their business segments. But the company has been aggressive in reducing costs and was able to improve adjusted EBITDA margin by 110 basis points to 26.5%. Their operating cash flow increased 15% year-over-year to $1.9 billion. The management even paid down debt by $1.7 billion since the March 31, 2020 quarter.

The stock has been punished after the earnings. It has dropped from about $163 and trades a little over $151 as of August 4th. 

Exhibit: 3M Technical Indicators are Flashing a Strong Sell on August 4, 2020.

(Source: Tradingview)

Currently, the technical indicators are all flashing a strong sell signal. The market seems to be giving-up on 3M. But the Bollinger Bands are tightening and this raises the possibility of a sharp price move in either direction. Given that the other technical signals are flashing sell, tightening Bollinger Bands could indicate a drop from this level.

Exhibit: 3M Bollinger Bands are Tightening.

(Source: Tradingview)

(Disclosure: I do not own 3M)

 

            

Caterpillar May be a Buy at around $131

Caterpillar (CAT) may be signalling a buy at around $131. This could be short term trade and the exit could be around $140, where the stock could face resistance. Bollinger Bands indicate that the stock is relatively cheap at around $131. There was a 30% upside on reported earnings compared to Wall Street estimates. EPS on Jul 31, 2020 was $0.84 compared to estimate of $0.64.  The earning beat indicate that the stock can go higher in the short-term. 

Exhibit: CAT's SMA is mostly bullish and Bollinger Bands indicate relative low prices.

(Source: Tradingview)

(Disclosure: I own CAT)   

Boeing has broken below a key support level

Boeing missed earnings targets by a huge margin on June 29, 2020. One Wall Street analyst called it a "planewreck"! The company reported a loss of $4.20 when the Wall Street estimate was for a loss of $2.55. This huge miss is driving the stock even lower. I have done a brief technical analysis of Boeing's 3-month chart and it does not paint a pretty picture.  The stock dropped below key support level of around $169. Today's small rally in the stock that brought it to $162 may be a false one and Boeing may continue dropping. 

(Source: TradingView)

(Disclosure: I own Boeing)

Caterpillar May be Set to Weaken Further.

Caterpillar recently announced that it may face a prolonged sales decline. The stock lost considerable ground on the day of this news. Looking at the Caterpillar's chart, it seems like weakness is set to continue. Caterpillar's sales have declined by 30% in Q2 2020. That's a very substantial decline. Given that the company sells very high-priced capital equipment that last a long time, demand for this equipment may recover slowly.

Exhibit: Caterpillar's Sales Were Down 30% Compared To Q2 2019.

(Source: SeekingAlpha)

I have also done a trend analysis on TradingView that seem to indicate further weakness to come in the stock.  

Exhibit: Caterpillar's chart is reflecting its weak fundamental. 

(Source: Author's chart on TradingView)  

Morningstar's analyst report on July 31 2020 makes a couple of interesting points:

• Many end markets served by the company are not directly affected. 
  
• Given the rally in gold, that may spur more mining.
  

All this may not be enough to save the company from a prolonged downturn. 

Boeing Lost Support at 50-Day Moving Average In a Bearish Sign For the Stock

Boeing has lost support at the 50-day moving average. This is a bearish sign for the stock.

Exhibit: Boeing's Simple Moving Average (Data based on Monday, July 27, 2020)

(Source: Secure Your Financial Independence - DJIA SMA Report)

Boeing is currently trading at $169.26. There seems to be support at this level. If it loses support here, then Boeing may drop all the way to $120 for the next support level.  Given the bad news at Boeing, it is entirely possible that it will touch $120 in the coming weeks or months. 

Exhibit: Boeing Has Support at $169. If it loses this support, it may drop all the way to $120. 

(Source: SeekingAlpha & Author Annotations)

    Boeing recently announced that it will delay its 777x jet by up to an year. Even before the pandemic, Boeing was dealing with the problems with its 737 Max jets. When the pandemic hit, it grounded the entire travel industry. It now seems like it may take years before the travel industry can fully recover. It may take a couple of years after travel gets back to 2019 level that Boeing will start to get new orders for jets. There's so much excess inventory of jets across the globe that airlines may put off buying new jets for years. Combine this with the problem of airlines going bankrupt and you have lesser number of customers to chase for new jet orders.  Given all these factors, it's entirely plausible that Boeing's stock could give-up much of its gain since May 2020 and retrace to $120. If it loses support at $120, it may test its lows below $100.

    This crisis is a real test of leadership. Boeing is such an iconic company that it's painful to see this downfall. I am confident that in 3-5 years Boeing will be in much better shape.

(Disclosure: I own Boeing)        

Visa, Home Depot, and Nike are a Buy Based on Simple Moving Average

    Home Depot (HD), Visa (V), and Nike (NKE) are buys at these levels when you consider only the 50-Day and 200-Day simple moving averages of all the stocks in the Dow Jones Industrial Average. Nike's 50-day simple moving average (SMA) is greater than its 200-day SMA. That's considered a bullish signal for the stock. Its 10-day SMA is greater than both its 50-day and 200-day. Both Visa and Home Depot exhibit the Golden Cross pattern where the 50-day SMA exceeds the 200-day SMA. But, based on fundamentals are they too expensive? 

Exhibit: Simple Moving Average May be Indicating that Nike is Buy

    

(Source: Securfii)

Exhibit: Simple Moving Average May be Indicating that Home Depot and Visa are a Buy

(Source: Securfii)

Nike is currently trading at 40x forward earnings. Home Depot is trading at 25x forward earnings and Visa is trading at 39x forward earnings. From a fundamental perspective all three companies are trading at a premium. But, on the other hand all three companies are one-of-a-kind in the world. Nike has an incomparable brand that is cherished across the globe. Visa has global network effects that cannot be easily replicated.  Home Depot's biggest strength may be its operational excellence.

Disclosure: I do not currently own HD, V, and NKE.

 

Goldman Sachs Looks Attractive Based on Moving Averages and Q2 Results

    The Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS) is on the move - both the company and the stock. As of July 20th, 2020, the stock is currently trading above its 10-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages. Even thought the 50-day moving average is below the 200-day moving average, I believe it's just a matter of time when the 50-day moving average crosses the 200-day moving average. On top of that the company reported blockbuster earnings in Q2, FY 2020. The company reported its second highest quarterly net revenue in its history. Revenues were up 41% compared to Q2 FY 2019.

Exhibit: Goldman Sachs Q2 FY 2020 Results Snapshot

(Source: SeekingAlpha)

Exhibit: Goldman Sachs Revenue Grew by 41% in Q2 FY 2020

(Source: SeekingAlpha)

    Goldman Sachs has been busy launching new products and services bringing innovation to the field. They have launched a new cloud-based transaction banking service that would bring modern treasury services and working capital management for customers worldwide. They have also launched a new buyout fund.      

Exhibit: Moving Averages for Goldman Sachs is Bullish     

(Source: SECURFII)

Disclosure: I own Goldman Sachs.

Simple Moving Average of All 30 Stocks in the Dow Jones Industrial Average

    Moving averages can be powerful momentum indicator for stock price movements. The simple moving average provides a way to find attractive entry points for stock. For example, the golden cross is a bullish signal for a stock when its short-term moving average breaks above a long-term one. For example, when a 50-day moving average crosses above the 200-day moving average. I have created a website that generates the simple moving average of all stocks in the Dow Jones Industrial Average.  This report will be generated daily after market close and can help you get ready for the next trading day. This report generates the 10-Day, 50-Day, 100-Day, 200-Day moving average of stocks in the DJIA.  It also compares the moving average price against the last price of that stock.  This gives you a perspective on where the last stock price stands in relationship to the moving averages.

                   Exhibit: Sample of the Simple Moving Average Report 

(Source: securfii.com)